課程資訊
課程名稱
氣候診斷
Climate Diagnostics 
開課學期
107-2 
授課對象
理學院  大氣科學研究所  
授課教師
盧孟明 
課號
AtmSci7071 
課程識別碼
229 M8290 
班次
 
學分
2.0 
全/半年
半年 
必/選修
選修 
上課時間
星期一8,9(15:30~17:20) 
上課地點
大氣A108 
備註
與隋中興合授
限學士班四年級以上
總人數上限:30人 
Ceiba 課程網頁
http://ceiba.ntu.edu.tw/1072AtmSci7071_cd 
課程簡介影片
 
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課程概述

當今氣候研究對社會影響最大的兩個議題為短期氣候(次季至年際或簡稱為S2S)以及人為導致氣候暖化的監測跟預報(估)。本課程著重在S2S監測跟預報研究。S2S時間尺度的變化是由包含大氣-海洋-陸地等地球系統的氣候動力過程控制。我們將以S2S氣候動力為基礎,診斷分析過去、及時、未來(預報)的氣候資料,建立學生對全球與區域氣候裏S2S變化的瞭解,進而為持續性極端天氣與S2S的預報研究奠定基礎。主要對象為碩博士班研究生,側重觀察與討論世界主要氣候中心提供的即時氣候監測資料,研讀相關文獻,了解氣候變異主模態的現象與監測分析方法。規劃約二分之一的課程內容為氣候監測分析與文獻討論,另二分之一為全球觀測和預測資料分析實作與研討。為加強對課程內容的了解,將有作業和期中進度報告,也將由學生在課程範圍內自己挑選想深入了解的研究題目在課堂討論並撰寫期末報告。

Climate predictions on weekly, monthly, seasonal and annual timescales involves many processes that operate among the atmosphere, ocean and land surface. Monitoring and analyzing the weekly to interannual climate variability is an efficient way to enhance our understanding of global and regional climate variability and the relationship with high-impact weather events.
This course is designed to be a graduate level (both MS and Ph.D) course, with emphasis on learning about how to talk about natural variability from weekly to interannual time scales, and the fundamental statistical/quantitative methods used to diagnose the natural variability. The diagnostics aims to assess the nature of climate variations on differing time scales.
The class will be a mixture of lectures, discussions, and student presentations. Half of the course is taught by interactive-oriented lectures covering the major topics that is relevant to the real-time climate monitoring and discussion. The rest of the course time will be devoted to observational and forecast data analysis and student presentations. There will be homework and midterm progress report to cover the lectures and a final oral presentation and written report on topic chosen by students. 

課程目標
1. 建立了解短期氣候監測與分析的內容和方法的能力
2. 建立了解與分析短期氣候變異與全球極端天氣變化關係的能力

1. Develop an understanding of the short-term climate monitoring and analysis methods.
2. Develop an understanding of how natural climate variability affects global extreme weather. 
課程要求
大四及以上 ,具備大氣環流、大氣動力、統計分析等基本知識 
預期每週課後學習時數
 
Office Hours
另約時間 備註: 個別約定 
指定閱讀
There is no official textbook for this course. We will discuss relevant papers for each topic. 
參考書目
1. Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences, Volume 100, Third Edition (International Geophysics), by Daniel S. Wilks. 2011. Academic Press.
2. Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction. Editors: Andrew Robertson, Frederic Vitart. 2018. eBook ISBN: 9780128117156 ; Paperback ISBN: 9780128117149
待補 
評量方式
(僅供參考)
 
No.
項目
百分比
說明
1. 
作業 
50% 
配合每週指定項目繳交至多2頁書面學習報告或發表15分鐘氣候監測 
2. 
期中簡報 
20% 
依課程內容自選主題進行小論文研究,期中簡報含目標、方法、資料、預期結果等規劃內容 
3. 
期末報告 
30% 
依課程內容自選主題進行小論文研究,期末繳交小論文 
 
課程進度
週次
日期
單元主題
第1週
2/18  INTRODUCTION
Real-time climate monitoring and resources (JMA/Tokyo Climate Center, NOAA/Climate Prediction Center, BoM/State of the Climate, Columbia University/IRI, …) 
第2週
2/25  EAST ASIAN WINTER MONSOON (1)
monsoon and Rossby wave activity, cold surges
 
第3週
3/04  EAST ASIAN WINTER MONSOON (2)
monsoon and AO, Blockings 
第4週
3/11  BSISO monitoring, forecast, applications (Guest Lecturer: Dr. Hae-Jeong Kim from APCC, Korea)  
第5週
3/18  MJO and topical waves monitoring and forecast (Guest Lecturer: Prof. Paul Roundy from University at Albany-SUNY, USA) 
第6週
3/25  EAST ASIAN WINTER MONSOON (3)
monsoon and MJO, Indonesia-Australia rainfall variability 
第7週
4/01  EAST ASIAN WINTER MONSOON (4)
2018/19 East Asian Winter Monsoon Review 
第8週
4/08  EAST ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON (1)
monsoon and BSISO, SCS summer monsoon, Taiwan Mei-yu 
第9週
4/15  EAST ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON (2)
monsoon and BSISO, tropical cyclone activity 
第10週
4/22  EAST ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON (3)
monsoon and biweekly oscillation, convection  
第11週
4/29  EAST ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON (4)
monsoon and teleconnection patterns (e.g. PJ) 
第12週
5/06  Interannual Oscillations, S2S, Persistent extreme weather events (1) - Teleconnections associated with BSISO
ENSO-S2S-extreme weather 
第13週
5/13  TGA&Pan-Pacific Anthropocene &大氣科學研究生研討會 
第14週
5/20  Interannual Oscillations, S2S, Persistent extreme weather events (2)
TBO and the associated phenomena 
第15週
5/27  Interannual Oscillations, S2S, Persistent extreme weather events (3)
QBO and its influence 
第16週
6/03  2019 International Workshop on Climate Prediction  
第17週
6/10  Climate Diagnostics (Guest Lecturer: Prof. YT Hwang) 
第18週
6/17  Student term project final presentation